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With the adjustments made to the drop on landing at Beechers (inside), the recent trend is for the more fancied horses and especially the winners to take the inside route. On my calculations the difference in taking a wide route compared to an inside route is around 14lb (20 lengths approx). The actual route taken can be scaled 0-20 on this basis pro-rata. Therefore taking a middle of the fence course all the way round would rate at 10. The course taken by the last two winners Bindaree and Montys Pass would rate at 1 and 2 respectively. The disadvantages are that Beecher's is still slightly more difficult on the inside and there is less room to escape any carnage. Apart from saving distance the other major plus is the fact that on the second circuit (first also if held up) the tops of the fences have been knocked off more on the inside. If the National meeting were to be run on soft from day one the difference would reduce because of the advantage of better ground on the outside.

Saturday April 3. Have had a number of letter on the subject of the course to be taken during the race. There was carnage at Beechers' yesterday. The fence looks stiffer on top this time. The horses that fell all jumped to the left (following Korakor). This exaggerates the drop on the landing side. Also these fences are best jumped straight (right angle to the fence) contact with the fence is more likely to dislodge the gorse rather than tip the horse over. As it happens the horse that jumped the Canal Turn at the sharpest angle, Scots Grey came to grief in doing so. The winner Cassia Heights would have taken a five course (average) the tightest of those that finished. This enabled it to win from 8lb out of the handicap. Having Jim Culloty on its back also helped of course. To avoid mishap at Beechers', will be hoping that any horse I have backed jumps the fence closer to the middle. If all jockeys take the view that the fence should be treated with respect this year no ground will be lost relative to the rest of the field. The inside by the next is ideal, more important is that the horse sees the fence (incidentally, the top two feet were knocked off this in yesterdays race).

Grand National 2004 Leading Ratings. Original Handicap weight in brackets

• 171 Jurancon II (10-4) - Impressive Haydock winner (fast ground). Will be an exciting ride for Tony McCoy.
• 168 What's Up Boys (11-6)? - Nicely weighted, should improve considerably on Wincanton run fast ground. Weight may count against this former National second.
• 167 Shardam (10-8) - Improving, good second at Cheltenham.
• 167 Tyneandthyneagain - Gutsy Eider winner. Needs soft ground which is not expected
• 167 Akarus (10-1) - Well weighted on its soft ground form. Going likely to be too fast
• 167 Lord Atterbury (9-12) - Under a cloud, poor effort at Cheltenham.
• 165 Bear On Board (9-12) - Jumps well, will stay, looks a good place bet at least, some rain would help.
• 163 Kingsmark (11-4) - Has not sparkled so far this year but ran well here in 2002.
• 162 Bindaree (11-1) - Jumped well here for J Culloty in 2002 victory. Beecher's mistakes cost it last year.
• 162 Gunner Welburn (10-5) - Fourth last year, can not see it doing better this, though said to be in better shape.
• 162 Joss Naylor (10-8) - Said to be in good form, has been backed. Doubts about stamina if this is a truly run race.
• 161 Le Coudray (11-9) - May have too much weight, could well be suited by the trip as three miles seems to be a minimum these days.
• 160 Alexander Banquet (11-5) - Will be suited by the distance, though hard to fancy as ground is likely to be too quick.
• 159 Davids Lad (11-1) - Has been trained for this for years was still going well when crashing two years ago.
• 158 Clan Royal (10-2) - Steadily improving, 2 recent course victories, suggest that it will jump round.
• 158 Southern Star (10-10) - Good winner at Warwick. Not a no-hoper the ground will be fast enough.
• 158 Bounce Back (10-1) - Has not sparkled since excellent Whitbread win two years ago but could live up to its name.
• 157 Takagi (10-8) - Winner Gd3 Fairyhouse in February. Normally needs give. This trip could compensate.
• 155 Amberleigh House (10-7) - Jumps the course well, will need better weighted rivals to fall.
• 155 Ardent Scout (10-0) - Proven on the course.
• 155 Red Striker (10-5) - Beaten when exiting last year. Chances would improve with soft going which is not expected.
• 155 Just In Debt (10-2) - Looks up against it, scored a fortunate victory at Ayr mid March.
• 152 Monty's Pass (11-7) - Jumped well under a great ride winning from Barry Geraghty last year. Not kindly treated.
• 150 Hedgehunter (10-9) - Fancied strongly by many. Is flattered by slowly run Thyestes win.

Apr 01: Latest Hills prices : 9 Jurancon II 10 Clan Royal & Hedgehunter 11 Bindaree 12 Joss Naylor, 14 Amberleigh House, Bear On Board & Davids Lad 16 Shardam 22 Monty's Pass.

Apr 01: 48 hour declarations see a number of withdrawals including the Pipe trio Iznogoud, Maximize and Royal Predica.

Mar 30: The weather forecast changes every time I look at it and varies every place I look.

Mar 30: Timbera scopes badly. Diagnosed as a lung infection and will not run.

Mar 30: Latest Weather forecast suggests that it will be dry and sunny for the rest of the week. The course will be watered, therefore good ground should be expected.

Mar 29: Aintree going is good at present. Some rain is forecast for Wednesday onwards.

Mar 29: Latest Betfair prices: 11 - Timbera, 12.5 - Hedgehunter, 14 - Jurancon & Clan Royal, 17 - Joss Naylor, 19.5 - Bear On Board, 20 - Amberleigh House & Bindaree, 21 - Davids Lad, 22 - Shardam, 23 - Montys Pass

Mar 29: Latest withdrawals include: Harbour Pilot, Royal Auclair, Innox, Montifault, Mini Sensation, Valley Henry, The Bushkeeper, Rince Ri, You're Agoodun, Innox and Joe Blake.

Mar 24: Best Bookmaker odds: 14 Hedgehunter, Timbera. 16 Jurancon II, Clan Royal. 20 Rince Ri, Joss Naylor, Bear On Board, Montys Pass. 25 Davids Lad, Amberleigh House, Shardam, Bindaree.

Mar 23: The following leading horses have been withdrawn: Rule Supreme, World Wide Web and Mini Sensation.

Mar 17: Latest Betfair prices - Hedgehunter 15.5, Timbera 15.5, Jurancon II 16, Clan Royal 17.5, Bear on Board 20, Rince Ri 20, Joss Naylor 23, Montys Pass 24 also Shardam 28

Mar 16: Following good run in the William Hill at Cheltenham Shardam's rating has been nudged up to 170

Mar 2: Latest Betfair prices - Timbera 14, Hedgehunter 14.5, Jurancon II 18.5, Clan Royal 19.5, Rince Ri 19.5, Bear On Board 22, Davids Lad 22, Joss Naylor 23, Monty's Pass 23, Lord Atterbury 26, Amberleigh House 26

Feb 12: Latest Betfair prices - Hedgehunter 16, Timbera 19, Clan Royal 19.5, Rince Ri 19.5, Joss Naylor 21, Lord Atterbury 21, Davids Lad 22, Montys Pass 23, Bear On Board 24.

Feb 9: After a fine effort in the Hennessy Cognac at Leopardstown, Harbour Pilot is raised 4lb. Principal target is still the Gold Cup. Also raised are Le Coudray who is back to its best of last season and Alexander Banquet who stayed on well in the Hennessy.

Feb 4: Market moves - Timbera down to as low as 14/1, max 20/1. Joss Naylor down to a max of 20/1 following Pricewise tip in Racing Post.