Grand National Ratings

The key to it all apart from the jumping is the ground. The going was almost perfect last year. They went a sensible gallop early on then built the pace up on the second circuit ensuring there were no real shocks. Biggest change last year from the year before is that Beechers was softer on the inside half. It wasn't the kiss of death to jump closer to the inside last time. Until the Topham and Foxhunters has been run. Can't be sure how soft the inside will be this year. Once again Ruby Walsh on Hedgehunter demonstrated that going the shortest way round is the key to winning this race more often than not. Incidently Royal Auclair was taken a wider safety first route last year. Which cost it many lengths. Now that they have tasted some success, wonder if they will be bolder this year.

You need a lot of luck to win the National. Will hear that said many times over the next few weeks. I for one believe that you can make your own luck in this race. Avoiding following behind a poor jumper is priority number one. Keeping away from loose horses is another imperative. Clan Royal was unfortunately taken out of the race coming to Beechers on the second circuit when hampered by a loose horse. The winner Hedgehunter on narrowly avoided trouble itself. Those horses had been a nuisance for a number of fences going out into the country towards Beechers. If you are able to see a video of last year's race. It is noticable that Ruby Walsh took a gentle pull on the winner a few fences before Beechers, causing it to drop back a few lengths. Had he not done so, would have almost certainly been taken out of the race at Beechers as well.

Am putting less horses up, I think they have no chance in terms of ability of stamina no point in getting distracted by high numbers. At this stage have Clan Royal top having nudged it up a few pounds after last year, where it would probably have been second to the easy wineer in my book. Have been loathe to talk about it until now because I was worried the handicapper, Phil Smith might have pushed it up a few pounds himself this year. On the back of its previous effort in 2004 when it should have won the race., even though his hands were tied regarding last season's effort. Fortunately it has the same mark and has been specially laid out for the race again. No idea whether it has deteriorated since last year. Tony McCoy has an abysmal record in the race. A record I'm sure he wants to bury once and for all, by winning the biggest prize in the jumping calendar. All in all the horse is a worthy favourite, who apart from the unfortunate blip last year has a great record over the fences. It must be considerd a long odds on shot to get round this year.

What will the ground be like? From memory have been wanting soft ground on many occasions. The forecasters have been saying it would rain then it does rain, everywhere except at Aintree that is. Best to wait and see. One reason why the 48 hour declaration for this race ruins it. What is wrong with having six reserves? If six horses want to pull out because of changed ground on Friday why not let those that want to race take part?

We had the farce of the best two year old of 2004 Shamardal, being specifically not trained for the 2000gns in 2005 to help another horse from the same camp. Won't be long before we have a billionaire move in and buy every over-rated donkey in the National and run them just to stop any horse that might have a chance of beating his favourite, getting into the race. Is that what we want for our greatest racing showpiece? My first amendment to the rules would be to exclude any owner from having a share in more than three horses in the race before it happens. We want a truly run exciting spectacle not a monopoly or the race will decline.

Wrote that last season. Nothing has changed. There are a number of good horses namely, Philson Run, Ross River and Korelo, who should be in the race with a good chance as stayers. They will probably be eliminated by has beens and non stayers.

Timeking's Grand National Ratings John Smith's Grand National Chase Handicap, 4m 4f, 4:15 Saturday April 8 2005
Horse	Rating	Dist	Going	Comment
Clan Royal	170	E	gd/gsf	Excellent record over these fences. Last year's elimination was unfortunate. Has been specifically trained for the race again. Pleasing win over hurdles at Market Rasen in early March.
Sir Oj	170 ?	SM	gd/sft	Question mark simply as a stamina issue. If it does stay could be thrown in, as it finishes its races well. Cheltenham fall was in wrong race on wrong ground
Hedgehunter	168	E	gd/sft	Easy winner of the race last year, having been the copybook ride from Ruby Walsh. Inevitable rise in the weights for this year, mean it will have a stiff task retaining crown. Particularly if the ground is slow. Showed that it was better than a staying handicapper with a good second in the Gold Cup.
Haut De Gamme	167	LE	gsf/hvy	Safe jumper of these fences. Giving the impression that it has been laid out for this race this year. Recent poor run at Uttoxeter is best ignored. Would nominate this horse as the best value ew chance.
Innox	167	L	gsf/hvy	Winner of the Racing Post Chase at Sandown in February. Down the field last year. Even though in better form now , stamina has to be taken on trust.
Baron Windrush	166	E	gsf/hvy	Stays well on soft ground. Did not look happy over the Haydock fences last season. Did have a hard race in the Eider but is lightly raced this season.
Philson Run	166	E	gsf/hvy	A proven winner on soft ground over Marathon trips. Winning the Eider in February. That was a gruelling strongly run contest in the mud. Such races normally leave their mark for a while. As shown with a pulled up in the Midlands National at Uttoxeter. Reserve
Royal Auclair	165	LE	gd/gsf	An honourable second to Hedgehunter in this race last year. Was taken on a wider course during the race last year. Has to have ew possiblities this year because of its ability to get round. Would want good ground in view of hefty weight burden. Ran fourth in the Gold Cup before last year's race. On the evidence of its run in this year's Gold Cup would be a couple of pounds below where it was last season before running into second.
Numbersixvalverde	164	E	gsf/hvy	Winner of the Irish National last season. Appears to have been kept ticking over with race in mind. Will appreciate the test of stamina.
Risk Accessor	164	ML	gsf/hvy	Probably a stamina doubt. Though staying on well when jumping through the wing at the last in the Racing Post Chase. These fences would have to be a worry for its backers and other contenders.
Direct Access	163	L	sft/hvy	Crashed out very early in the Beecher Chase in October. Made amends with a comfortable victory over the Newcastle fences the following weekend. Definitely better with give in the ground. That early exit is a worry.
Ballycassidy	163	L	gd/gsf	A return to form in the Racing Post Chase behind Innox. Effort in Gold Cup suggests that the Sandown run will be it peak performance this season. At its best on quickish ground.
Jack High	162	E	gd/hvy	Winner over 29f last season at Sandown. Has not been given an opportunity to win this season. Which suggests it has been specially laid out for the race. Is fairly exposed though.
Cornish Rebel	162	E	gsf/sft	Has its share of weight. Does enjoy some give in the ground, though current high mark makes that a catch 22 situation in handicaps. Was running an excellent race before bad mistake 3out in Gold Cup. Have raised by 4lb.
Colnel Rayburn	161	L	sft/hvy	Looks an outsider. Definitely best with plenty of give in the ground.
Le Duc	160	L	gd/hvy	Jumps the fences well, which is an asset. May have a little too much weight
Juveigneur	160	LE	gd/sft	In two outings over these fences has not exactly shown any liking for the course. Would rate higher at Cheltenham, Ayr or Sandown. Excellent run at Cheltenham.
Therealbandit	159	L	gsf/sft	Winner of the Rowland Merrick at Wetherby. Has plenty of weight here
Joes Edge	159	LE	gd/sft	Winner of last season's Scottish National, just pipping Cornish Rebel. Looks to have a stiff task at the weights.
Puntal	159	LE	gfm/sft	Has it all to do at the weights. Sandown victory in 2004 was in a steadily run contest. Therefore a lingering question mark regarding stamina.
It Takes Time	158	ME	gd/sft	Was steered the shortest route round with a good from Timmy Murphy last year. Beaten 18 lengths then and has gone up as much as the easy winner Hedgehunter. No chance. Will want it good from a stamina point of view.
Silver Birch	158	E	gd/sft	Won the Beecher Chase over these fences last season also the Welsh National. Both races were slowly run affairs. Appears to be too high in the weights. Not likely to have the benefit of Ruby Walsh in the saddle.
Inca Trail	158	LE	gfm/gsf	Has too much weight on evidence shown so far. Likes Sandown. Sold out of the P Nicholls stable. Has moved to D McCain's. Will not be ridden by useful amateur Jamie Snowden. Who has struck up a useful partnership in winning uncompetitve amateur ridden events.
Horses Not Running
Royal Emperor	170	LE	gd/hvy	A decent horse on its day, who has been coming back to form this season. Likes to be up with the pace. Definitely best with give in the ground. Can make mistakes. Excellent run in the Gold Cup which a five pound rise in rating, though had already ready been Withdrawn before I had put any ratings up in fact.
Sir Rembrandt	170	E	gd/gsf	Placed in two Gold Cups. Not very reliable but does tend to race best in strongly run races. Can make mistakes but has run well over the Haydock fences carrying a large weight on testing ground. Raised 2lb following a very creditable run in Gold Cup on ground that was too lively. Foot injury two days before the race Withdrawn
Korelo	168	LE	gd/hvy	Not likely to get in at the weights. Did also have a very hard race in the Newcastle mud behind Philson Run. Poor run at Cheltenham was not a surprise. Missed Cut
Ross River	165	LE	sft/hvy	Stays well enough to suggest that this trip is whats required to win a race. Unlikey to make the race as it is so low in the handicap. Withdrawn
Marcus Du Berlais	165	L	gsf/hvy	Appears to have been specifically trained for this. Seems best with give in the ground. Given those conditions could prove a danger to all if scraping in at the bottom of the handicap. Poor run on bottomless going at Uttoxeter in March Withdrawn
Monkerhostin	164	ML	gd/gsf	Not a guaranteed stayer. Given top weight thanks to a close second to a below par Kicking King in The King George VI at Sandown. Is likely to have a hard race in the Cheltenham Gold Cup. Not a guaranteed runner.Withdrawn
One Knight	163	LE	gd/sft	Talented front runner with give in the ground. Prone to making mistakes. Best recent runs at Chepstow (not Cheltenham!). Would make the race a stiff test. Withdrawn
Double Honour	162	L	gd/hvy	Capable horse on its day when the trip is demanding. Brave winner over a marathon trip at Haydock in December. The tough race it had there on soft ground seems to have left its mark though. Withdrawn
L'Aventure	162	E	gsf/sft	Exciting staying mare on her day, winning the Welsh National with plenty in hand in December. Much better with a strong gallop as all she is does is stay. Did not take to the Haydock fences in February. There has to be a worry that the same will apply here as well. Withdrawn
Another Rum	161 +	E	gd/hvy	Dark horse packed with stamina. Won over 4 miles at Cheltenham last season. Does not mind the ground. Ran an eyecatching race at Ayr last time. Young enough to have improved since last season, could be the joker in the pack. Poor run at Cheltenham. Withdrawn
Comply Or Die	161	L	gd	Fourth in the Hennessy at Newbury in November, a race which can often give a guide to this race for a place. Young enough to improve on rating, would want decent ground.Withdrawn
Calling Brave	161	L	gfm/sft	Pulled up in the Racing Post Chase. Faces a race against time to be at its best for this. Withdrawn
Joly Bey	160	L	gd/gsf	Taken the scenic route out wide last season running 20 lengths further at least. Question mark over stamina but does handle the fences. Withdrawn
Ollie Magern	160	L	gd/gsf	Over raced last season which only ended when picking up an injury. Winner of an uncompetive Charlie Hall last October. Has struggled in strongly run contests since. Withdrawn
Iris Bleu	160	LE	gd/gsf	Runs best very fresh. As proving when winning at Wincanton early season. Has gone downhill since. This is likely to be too much of an uphill struggle. Withdrawn
Euro Leader	159	L	gd/sft	Early season improver. This race may come a year too early. Withdrawn

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Race Ratings explained

The Rating is what a horse is expected to achieve given optimum conditions.

The Dist (distance) codes are as used on the Leading Ratings Pages. If a horse is expected to perform well over a particular distance. An appropriate code eg M (for around 20f) will be displayed even if the horse has never run over that distance before. The codes' S (short) ,M (medium),L (long) and E (extra long) sequence is fairly easy to remember.

The Going refers to the ground when the best ratings are achieved. If a wide spread of goings eg gd/hvy and a spread of distances eg ME (2m4f - 3m3f+) is indicated. That may well mean that the extent of the horse's stamina is dependent on the state of the going.