The Grand National: Who will Edge it?

The National looks tight, with many of the "favoured" horses not having shown much this season. Joes Edge was impressive with the way it stayed on at Cheltenham. The initial reaction was that it was just staying on past tired horses. The closing fractions were good though, it was genuinely staying on strongly. If it puts in a clean round today could be hard to beat off its low weight. Hedgehunter is to my mind the best National horse since Red Rum. The ground has come right for it this year in the sense that it is hard enough to carry a large weight without it being soft. As it was last year. Could not be described as having the ideal preparation. Though recent reports have been favourable. Eurotrek was impressive when winning over the course earlier in the season. If coming back in similar form would have to major contender.

Numbersixvalverde has not been harshly treated for last year's comfortable victory, though does seem best with give in the ground. Was thinking that its fencing may be tested on the quicker ground, thinking back to a jumping of Beechers last year. The fences do seem to be soft on top this year. Dun Doire has not exactly been setting the world on fire, as expected. The marked drift in the betting may be an over-reaction as the ground will not be much quicker than when winning at Cheltenham last season. Clan Royal had possibly its last good chance when finishing third last year. It didn't jump well enough then but stayed on for pressure. Its record has to be respected and a change of jockey may actually help.

Ratings for Aintree today have been done in order of best time figures this season. As they are doing better than the ratings recently. It is intended, however, that the National ratings will be put up in Timeking rating order rather than this season time rating order.

Other Aintree Comments

• 1:45 With the benefit of a strong pacemaker Orcadian showed what it was capable when winning last time at Newbury. The worry here is that the ground may be too lively. With the hurdle course on the inside today and fresh ground being on the inside. Getting a good position from the start in a large field could prove to be essential. Pepperoni Pete does not look totally genuine. I'm So Lucky has got a nice weight and should appreciate the flatter track.
• 2:15 Fair Along did not get off to the best of starts in the Arkle but the illogical strong pace set up by Jack The Giant helped bring its stamina in to play (as well as the winner of that race My Way de Solzen). Jack The Giant must have hopes of reversing the Cheltenham form if ridden with a little more restraint here. Twist Magic beaten by the Henderson trained horse at Kempton over Christmas when front running. Seemed to appreciate being ridden with some restraint and was bang in contention when falling. Don't Push It may find this task too sharp on the ground unless the pace is suicidal from the start.
• 2:50 In the Champion Hurdle the last thing I wanted to see was Detroit City being scrubbed along to keep in close touch with Hardy Eustace and Brave Inca who have a tendency to go off too fast for their own good when in opposition. The winner of The Champion Hurdle was quietly ridden. Though the grey may just have had an off day. Having said all that, there is no definite guarantee of a strong early pace here. Unless they decide to be aggressive with Gaspara. So they may get away with making the running at a pace to suit Detroit City. Afsoun is stepping up in trip here. The ground could be lively enough.
• 3:25 Mac Federal was never really in contention last time at Cheltenham but was dragged into putting up a decent time. It remains to be seen how competitive it is at the weights. After an indifferent start to its handicapping career, Albertas Run has got into top gear now. It is fairly treated here and is likely to be thereabouts.. Opera De Coeur ran well for a long way at Uttoxeter. The quicker ground here will help.
• 5:00 A very tight race. Private Be disappointed last time but should be suited by this trip. Bold Fire weakened quickly at Newbury, may be best fresh. Bob Hall stayed on well at Cheltenham. Sharper track and quicker ground may not be in its favour.King Revo is talented but jumped poorly at Cheltenham.
• 5:35 As with the Mares Bumper yesterday Alan Swinbank brings an unbeaten contender to the race in Theatrical Moment. It has been much too good for the opposition so far. No telling how good it really is. The probability is that it will beat Lodge Lane who though showing plenty of ability at Cheltenham, looked a difficult ride. Chestnut Charlie may find conditions too lively.

( The horses are sorted in best speed figures (Time) since September 2006 rating order then by TKrtg)

Ratings Pages

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