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Cheltenham: Day 1
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The usual blurb have made a few amendments to the ratings. No top-rateds have been changed. We have had two big races so far this week and two beaten champions in Rooster Booster and Moscow Flyer. The last two biggies today. May be some rain overnight/early morning but not much forecast. The Triumph is tight as usual with a number of horses having a chance. Am hoping that Jim Culloty does not try to make all on Tusk. If Zimbabwe is going well would expect some sort of move on the final turn as it stays two miles well on the flat. Trouble at Bay may have had a hard campaign but it is tough. Tarque is a unknown quantity really. Cherub may have been inconvenienced by the mud in Sandown's straight more than the winner Tusk. Would have thought that Howle Hill would have gone to Aintree, the ground is ideal here though. Adopted Hero will probably suit Tony McCoys aggressive style. Chepstow was too agressive though, it should stay. Wild Passion is a classy flat horse, who will be suited by a strongly run race. Moulin Riche is the dark horse, highly regarded by the Doumen Team. Stayers Hurdle should be Baracouda's yet again. A fit Iris's Gift would probably be the only horse with a chance of outgalloping the Doumen trained favourite. Crystal d'Ainay has probably got more speed than stamina at this trip. A tactical race would suit. Sh Boom beat it in a tactical race at Cheltenham. Solerina's connections will probably be hoping for some rain. If Best Mate does not win the Gold Cup it will be a total anticlimax. Hard to predict who will come second (all being well) without knowing the shape of the race. There is no Valley Henry to help move things along this year. This could be against last year's placed horses Trucker's Tavern and Harbour Pilot. Lord Atterbury is the mystery horse of the season. How will it perform. Will it head for the National after. Stable companion Omeminutetofive is a dark horse because I have not seen it win. How much it was eased when winning last time out is significant. I may have under-rated it. It is improving in leaps and bounds. Oh yes and by the way it is a stable companion of the favourite. The likes of Earthmover, Bright Approach and County Derry will be helped if something sets off at a good gallop from the start. Never Compromise jumps well, Castle Weir is not so proficient. The Grand Annual could be tricky. Will St Pirran stand up? Will Latalomne recapture its form. Santenay looks fragile, no Ruby on board today. No Invisibility has been trained over 20f for this and been getting stronger. The Cathcart looks as if it will be a small field. Would ignore the "p" against Iris Royal's name. Another tight handicap. Could be plenty of non runners to mess the early odds up. Adamant Approach is well handicapped on Cheltenham 2002 form. Lilium de Cotte has the ability. Man O' Mystery is improving. There is probably another half dozen with good chances. All depends how fast the likes of Benbyas and Through The Rye set off. They did cut their own throats in the Tote Gold Trophy. The Race StartsHave just reviewed the start of the Triumph on Video. It was a rushed start. Of the first four home, winner, Made In Japan started closest to the front around halfway down the field, it did race on the inside all the way round, until the straight. Chief Yeoman may have been unfortunate as it was impeded at the start behind Zimbabwe who was caught on its heels. Ironically that horse was racing close to the head of the field soon after the first hurdle. To make sure it had no chance it was sent to the front at the third last, which is a long way from home. At the point I though it should be making its move was when it weakened on the final turn (A full minute after taking the lead). The principals in the race made their move then. Of the leading ten horses at halfway only Cherub finished in the first five, it must be a decent horse that will prove to be a stayer. The others cut their throats.In the Stayers' Hurdle Iris's Gift was at the head of the field when the race started. Baracouda was obliged to run an extra four lengths from its starting position. The time of this race was 3 seconds slower than last year, on my figures allowing for the ground. Baracouda in other words gave ground at the start in a slow race. There was not much between the two horses in a strongly run race last year. The start this year may well have made the difference. Incidentally the jockeys on Sh Boom, Gralmano, Holy Orders and Redemption were confident enough of their chances to give Iris's Gift a start of over six lengths. My conclusion at the "rushed starts" at the meeting is I do not like them. A number of horses that have conceded ground, ie, raced further than the advertised trip have won. Many of those have compensated by racing on the inside and saving ground. In all cases they have been able to win because the horses in front have raced too fast. Rooster Booster lost ground in a slow race. Another horse to lose its race at the start (among many) was Got One Too in the Grand Annual. The starts that were more orderly and not rushed giving time for the horses to fan out a bit more, therefore reducing the gap between those in front and the rear were best. The old system of lining the horses up on the tape in a straight line was too fussy, the new system has swung the other way and was slapdash on many occasions. Cheltenham Highlights, Going: soft side of good, easing to good to soft after the Gold Cup.An ordnary day for the ratings.Gold Cup day is always difficult with the Triumph Hurdle and the County Hurdle to contend with. When one has two odds on shots in the two feature races options are limited. The early rain did make a difference to the going. With the showers that came after the Gold Cup the going finally ended up good to soft. Main casualty of adjusting the ratings for good ground was Our Armageddon who would have been second best without my interference. Back to the Gold Cup, it must have appeared that I had been taking strange substances to put forward Sir Rembrandt as a potential player early this season and backed it. The mistake early in the straight at Chepstow not only caused the horse that race but is the likely source of the problems that besotted the horse in it next two outings. Whatever treatment it had been given, it certainly worked. Post race I felt a little guilty for shamelessly cheering home Best Mate when seeing the disappointment etched into the faces of Andrew Thornton and Paul Carberry. I may be guilty of criticising jockeys at times. The intention is not to be malicious. Jump jockeys are risking serious injury or worse every time they go out to ride. It can be rightly argued that the financial rewards are not equal to the risks. Winning Gold Cups, Nationals etc are what it is all about. Andrew Thornton and Paul Carberry gave it everything out there today and contributed to a great race, thank you.
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