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Tuesday March 16 2004





Day 1 - Rooster loses Champion at the start.



At last, after all the hype we have got here. Was going to jokingly fill this page with tips from about a dozen "informed" tipsters just to make sure every horse with a chance got a tip . I say jokingly but in many races this week it is logically possible to put forward a number of different horses per race that could win. The condition of the ground is a vital factor. Fast going today would have seen me being very confident regarding the chances of Thisthatandtother in the Arkle. Albuhera's chance in the first probably depends on the ground. If the ground was good to firm (I am not expecting it to be) It would have been my top rated. Brave Inca has consistently impressed in coming from behind to win races that were not run at a strong gallop from the start. Alaways a sign of a good horse. If one looks at the ratings. The Time column (best times since October 2003) indicates that on "Time" it is sixth best.

The Champion Hurdle brings up the question of how fast it will be run. Guaranteed a strongly run race thereis no doubt that Rooster Booster would be hard to beat. Evidence suggests that Rigmarole is equipped with the best turn of foot, handy in a slower race. If it were to be a slow race a number of contenders such as Hasty Prince, Westender, Hardy Eustace and Self Defense would possibly lose a chance of getting placed. The tactics of a slow race will not suit every horse.

The William Hill Handicap Chase is a tight affair, jumping and jockeyship could well decide the outcome. With apologies to the late great Fulke Walwyn. The race known as the Kim Muir (an owner rider in the pointing/hunting arena who was killed in the Second World War) by most is the most competitive of the day. Jasmin Guchois is not guaranteed to stay, the ground here being almost certainly slower than when winning at Wincanton. The odds reflect that. A similar proviso applies to Mondial Jack. Ibis Rochelais and Innox appear to have been primed for this race. It would appear That Toto Toscato is considered to be ready to do itself justice despite four years off, on iys old form it would have every chance. No doubt a win here would give Martin Pipe more satisfaction than any other race this week apart from the Gold Cup.

Another competitive race as usual is the Pertemps. Hidden Bounty keeps finding that little bit extra. Ironically it fell when having no chance at the weights in the Haydock qualifier. That race could be the key to how well the ratings do, as I judged it to have not been the quickest. A fair number of contenders are coming directly from that race, notably the Jonjo O'Neill trio Tardar, Ar Muin Na Muice and Personal Assurance. Also Brewster, Alexanderthegreat, Rostropovich, Derivative and last year's winner Inching Closer (when with Jonjo). John P McManus owned Keepatem has had only one outing this season, which in my opinion it could have won. It would appear that today is the season's prime objective for the animal.

Today at Cheltenham (post racing)

An up and down day for the ratings at least there were two winners. The frightening aspect of the first few races was that the horses were not lined up at the start as we have come to expect over the years but were lead in from off the course. Most marked outcome of this procedure was that Rooster Booster started almost two seconds behind the front running winner, Hardy Eustace. Difficult to be totally accurate over that assessment as the TV coverage of the start was far from ideal. It was definitely two seconds behind (8 lengths) at the first. After the Champion Hurdle, the horses were not lined up exactly but were allowed to spread across the track which meant that the starts were more even.

Cheltenham - First day highlights

  • 2:00 The Supreme Novices was about two horses, Brave Inca 147 and War Of Attrition 146. They pulled away from the rest of the field headed by the always prominent Fleet Street 137. Cardenas 134 kept on under pressure for fourth. Principal sufferer of the lack of early pace was Guarde Champetre 134 who was only in 12th position coming out of the final turn but ran on for fifth, it almost certainly needs slow ground. Arch Stanton 130 was travelling well two out but faded into sixth. The first two look capable of more improvement. Will pencil in 155 for the winner and 151 for the runner up. The winning time was not great which suggests that the first two could be better employed over fences next season.
  • 2:40 Well Chief 148 given a great patient ride in the rear off a fast early pace by Tony McCoy slipped through on the inside to take it up on the final turn, drawing 3 lengths clear of the chasing Kicking King 144. It hit the top of the last and lost momentum, allowing that rival to get within a length but under determined pressure from Tony McCoy it held that advantage to the line. Le Duc 135 who never threatened to win plugged on for a distant third. Jahash 122, blundered through the last but still held on for fourth. Tidour 137 was not far off in third when coming down at the last. It is doubtful that it would have won. Though the winning time was not great, the early pace was strong. Colca Canyon and Caracciola went too fast, early on. The shock of the race was the early demise of the favourite Thisthatandtother who crashed out at the second, having sprawled on landing over the first. It would not be a surprise to learn that it had been drugged as it looked so uncharacteristic.
  • 3:20 Hardy Eustace 156 won this at the start, leading at a steady pace through out. The rest of the jockeys in the field determined to get a slow race were guilty of not challenging it apart from Richard Johnson on last year's Champion, Rooster Booster 153. It gave the winner too much lead at the start in what was a slow race. Still well down the field at the top of the hill, it made ground up quickly to be in a position to be able to challenge before two out. Given a pull at that stage, however, it did not actually challenge till the last. The front runner responded to pressure and quickened better up the hill. It was a nicely judged ride by the winning jockey Conor O'Dwyer. According to trainer Dessie Hughes, Hardy Eustace had improved a lot over the last few weeks. It may well be capable of 162+. A successful defence of this championship next year is not out of the question if it finds a few more pounds improvement. What is certain is that we are more likely to witness a decently run contest next year. Apart from giving a lead and being held up in a slow race. The question has to be asked, did the fact that Rooster Booster had a hard race in the Tote Gold Trophy take the edge off it? Geos winner of that race never travelled well here and was tailed off when eventually pulled up. Intersky Falcon 144, kept on without threatening for third place. Rigmarole was never in contention, it is hard to make up ground against rivals of a similar ability in a slow race.
  • 4:00 Always jumping and travelling well, novice Fork Lightning 149 quickened away from promising Shardam 147 after the second last. Despite drifting to the stands side approaching the last, kept on well to win by two lengths. Royal Auclair 140, stayed one pace for third.
  • 4:40 A strongly run race saw Merchants Friend 130, lead for most of the race until running out of energy on the flat. Maximize 133, who had jumped poorly in the Eider Chase, stayed on from a long way back to snatch the prize only yards from the line. Ibis Rochelais 119 could only stay on at one pace. Jasmin Guchois travelled well early but started to struggle at the top of the hill. It appeared to not get home. 20f on fast ground seems ideal. Mondial Jack stablemate of the winner was never at the races here.
  • 5:20 A decent gallop from the start played into the hands of the quietly ridden Creon 130 who led near the finish to beat G V A Ireland 130. Alexanderthegreat 144 kept on bravely. Also close up were Ar Muin Na Muice 143, His Nibs 132, Mutineer 132. Keepatem 129 finished just behind these principals. Its chance of winning thrown away by too many indifferent jumps. Hidden Bounty dropped away quickly at the top of the hill and was pulled up. It may have run too close to the pace or something may have been amiss. Back on Top 124 threatened to play a part in the race coming down the hill but its petered out when put under pressure. Possibility it may improve for this race.

Tomorrow

The ratings are only provisional at present. With the opportunity to discover what the ground actually is, from today's racing. It would be folly not to reassess with the aid of the latest weather forecast. Will do so early evening. Final ratings will have the word "Provisional" removed from the heading. That said am not expecting to make any major adjustments.

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